This article offers a survey of political dynamics surrounding the issue of presidential term limits in a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries over a long period of time. It examines empirically how political regimes have dealt with this issue by observing or circumventing limits, and it links these developments with the democratic quality in the countries at the time they occurred. Beyond legal texts, this study examines the empirical reality of term limits. It finds that effective term limits are less prevalent in practice than in constitutional texts. This is followed by an analysis of the incumbency bias, showing that incumbents who run often win at the election, but that transfers of power are more frequent in the absence of an incumbent. The article then considers the cost-benefit analyses leaders engage in when deciding to stay or to go, as well as the risks of overstaying. Domestic protest and international pressure generally have a limited impact on this choice. The article finally makes clear that political paths across Africa are very divergent, a feature also seen in the longevity of presidents.

中文翻译：

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尊重和规避撒哈拉以南非洲的总统任期限制：一项比较调查

本文对大量撒哈拉以南非洲国家在很长一段时间内围绕总统任期限制问题的政治动态进行了调查。它实证检验了政治体制如何通过观察或规避限制来处理这个问题，并将这些发展与它们发生时国家的民主质量联系起来。除了法律文本，本研究还考察了任期限制的经验现实。它发现有效任期限制在实践中不如在宪法文本中普遍。接下来是对在职偏见的分析，表明竞选的在职者通常会在选举中获胜，但在没有现任者的情况下，权力更替更为频繁。然后，文章考虑了领导者在决定留下或离开时进行的成本效益分析，以及逾期逗留的风险。国内抗议和国际压力一般对这一选择的影响有限。这篇文章最后明确指出，非洲各地的政治道路非常不同，这也体现在总统的长寿上。