Abstract

The article makes an attempt to bring to the fore the various factors which are considered in the due process of attribution of a cyber-attack and the correlation of credible attribution with cyber deterrence. The focal point of the article is a three-step approach to model the decision-making process behind attribution of cyber-attacks using Bayesian Belief Networks and a case study to elucidate on the functioning of the model. Bayesian Belief Networks represent relationships between variables or multiple events and they are used to draw inference or estimate the probability to help decision-making under the conditions of uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯信念网络建模网络攻击的归因

摘要

本文试图将各种因素，这些因素在网络攻击归因的适当过程中以及可信归因与网络威慑之间的相关性中加以考虑。本文的重点是使用贝叶斯信念网络对网络攻击归因背后的决策过程进行建模的三步方法，并通过案例研究来阐明模型的功能。贝叶斯信念网络表示变量或多个事件之间的关系，它们用于得出推断或估计在不确定性条件下有助于决策的可能性。