ABSTRACT

How the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution might inform climate change adaptation is hotly debated. Central to these debates is an understanding that event attribution’s backward-looking orientation aligns poorly with the forward-facing goals of adaptation policy. Here, I analyze two new philosophical arguments that challenge this understanding and claim that probabilistic event attribution is not only forward-looking, but has a potentially significant role in risk-pooling adaptive strategies. I argue the purported forward-looking capabilities of event attribution are based on a mischaracterization of the scientific methodology, and one consequence of this mischaracterization is a limited role in adaptive risk-pooling schemes.

摘要

概率极端事件归因科学如何为适应气候变化提供信息引起了激烈的争论。这些辩论的核心是理解事件归因的向后看方向与适应政策的前瞻性目标不一致。在这里，我分析了挑战这种理解的两个新的哲学论点，并声称概率事件归因不仅具有前瞻性，而且在风险共担自适应策略中具有潜在的重要作用。我认为，所谓的事件归因的前瞻性能力是基于对科学方法的错误描述，而这种错误描述的一个后果是在适应性风险分担计划中的作用有限。