ABSTRACT

Migration is a complex behavioural pattern which is shaped by cross-scale variables and heuristic rules. This article captures the complexity and dynamic behaviour of migration in Tehri Garhwal district of Uttarakhand using agent-based modelling (ABM). Scenarios considering different starting points were developed to understand variables influencing migration. Migration is governed not only by intrinsic factors, but also by extrinsic influences. Exploratory ABM techniques were used to validate the hypothesis assumed to explain migration behaviour in the study area. The results show that migration cannot be steered with policies focused only on economic perspectives.

摘要

迁移是一个复杂的行为模式，由跨尺度变量和启发式规则决定。本文使用基于代理的建模（ABM）捕获了北阿坎德邦Tehri Garhwal区的迁移的复杂性和动态行为。开发了考虑不同起点的方案，以了解影响迁移的变量。迁移不仅受内在因素的影响，而且还受外在因素的影响。探索性ABM技术用于验证假设以解释研究区域的迁移行为。结果表明，仅以经济观点为中心的政策是无法控制移民的。