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The distributional impact of recessions: The global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic recession
Journal of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2020-12-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105971
Ippei Shibata 1
Affiliation  

Using U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis and those of Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics–“social” (where individuals interact to consume goods), “teleworkable” (where individuals have the option of working at home), and “essential” jobs (which were not subject to government mandated shutdowns during the recent recession), and (iii) wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected more in recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the Pandemic Recession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical. This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilled workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis. During both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than top-income earners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions. Lastly, a large share of unemployed persons was on temporary layoff during the COVID-19 recession, unlike the Global Financial Crisis.



中文翻译:

衰退的分配影响:全球金融危机和 COVID-19 大流行衰退

本文使用美国当前人口调查数据,比较了 COVID-19 大流行危机和全球金融危机在 (i) 工人特征,(ii) 工作特征——“社会”(个人互动消费)方面的分布影响商品)、“可远程办公”(个人可以选择在家工作)和“必要”工作(在最近的经济衰退期间不受政府强制关闭的限制),以及 (iii) 工资分配。我们发现,年轻和受教育程度较低的工人在经济衰退中总是受到更大的影响,而女性和西班牙裔在大流行性衰退期间受到的影响更为严重。令人惊讶的是,远程工作、社交和基本工作在历史上的周期性较低。远程工作职业的这种历史非周期性归因于其较高的技术工人比例。然而,与全球金融危机期间不同的是,在大流行危机期间,社会行业的就业人数下降更多,而远程工作和必要工作的就业人数下降幅度较小。在两次衰退期间,低收入工人比高收入者遭受的损失更大,这表明两次衰退对分配产生了重大影响。最后,与全球金融危机不同,在 COVID-19 经济衰退期间,很大一部分失业人员处于临时裁员状态。低收入工人比高收入者遭受的损失更大,这表明两次经济衰退对分配产生了重大影响。最后,与全球金融危机不同,在 COVID-19 经济衰退期间,很大一部分失业人员处于临时裁员状态。低收入工人比高收入者遭受的损失更大,这表明两次经济衰退对分配产生了重大影响。最后,与全球金融危机不同,在 COVID-19 经济衰退期间,很大一部分失业人员处于临时裁员状态。

更新日期:2020-12-08
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