This paper examines the twin influences of fiscal balance and trade balance on the dynamics of private investment at times of institutional change. Applying quantile regression for panel data of 31 OECD countries in the period 2002–2017, the study contributes in three ways: 1) degradations of fiscal balances and trade balances have clear negative impacts on private investment; 2) improvements in public governance appear as a strong incentive for private investment; notably, better public governance constrains the negative impacts of the twin balances on private investment; 3) countries with higher institutional quality enjoy a positive net effect of the fiscal balance, while the negative net effect of the trade balance is reduced. This study has significant implications, advocating institutional improvement to stabilize private investment in OECD countries.

本文考察了制度变迁时财政收支和贸易收支对私人投资动态的双重影响。将分位数回归应用于2002-2017年间31个经合组织国家的面板数据，该研究以三种方式做出贡献：1）财政收支和贸易收支的下降对私人投资有明显的负面影响；2）改善公共治理似乎是吸引私人投资的强大动力；值得注意的是，更好的公共治理限制了双资产平衡对私人投资的负面影响；3）具有较高体制质量的国家将获得财政收支的正净效应，而减少贸易差额的负净效应。这项研究具有重大意义，