ABSTRACT This paper introduces and discusses a methodology for estimating the scale of illicit consumption of cigarettes at a national level. After reviewing current data gathering approaches and estimates, the paper delineates a methodology to estimate the consumption of each type of illicit cigarette (i.e., counterfeits, illicit whites, smuggled/trafficked genuine cigarettes). The proposed methodology is tested through estimating the size and characteristics of the illicit cigarette market in 27 Member States of the European Union in 2016. The results, which underline the heterogeneity in the quality and in the quantity of the illicit consumption of cigarettes in Europe, are presented along with considerations about the strengths and limitations of the proposed methodology in relation to extant approaches.

中文翻译：

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估算国家一级卷烟非法消费的方法

摘要本文介绍并讨论了一种在全国范围内估计卷烟非法消费规模的方法。在回顾了当前的数据收集方法和估计之后，本文勾勒出一种方法来估计每种非法卷烟（即假冒产品，非法白葡萄酒，走私/贩运的正品卷烟）的消费量。通过估算欧洲联盟27个成员国2016年非法卷烟市场的规模和特征，对提议的方法进行了测试。结果强调了欧洲卷烟非法消费的质量和数量上的异质性，与现有方法有关的建议方法的优势和局限性一起考虑。