Abstract

The present study employs a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effects of a mandatory sexual assault kit (SAK) testing policy on rape arrests in a large western US jurisdiction. We use a Bayesian structural time-series model and monthly data on arrests for rape from 2010 through 2019. In the post-implementation period, we observed a downward trend in the arrest rate for rape. Based on the results, the most conservative interpretation of our findings is that the policy implementation did not affect rape arrest rates. While mandatory SAK testing policies are often advocated for based on the belief that they will increase arrest rates for sexual assault (among other proposed benefits), we add to growing empirical evidence that policy interventions beyond mandatory SAK testing are needed to increase arrest rates for sexual assault. Jurisdictions that currently use mandatory SAK testing policies are encouraged to assess stakeholders’ experiences to proactively address resource allocation, consider other policies that may increase accountability for sexual assault offenders, and utilize victim service providers to support other measures of success with victims in instances where no arrest is made.

摘要

本研究采用准实验设计来评估强制性攻击套件（SAK）测试政策对美国西部大司法管辖区中强奸逮捕的影响。我们使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型和从2010年到2019年的强奸逮捕的月度数据。在实施后的时期，我们观察到强奸逮捕率呈下降趋势。根据调查结果，我们对调查结果的最保守的解释是，该政策的实施并未影响强奸的逮捕率。尽管通常认为强制性SAK测试政策会提高性侵犯的逮捕率（除其他提议的好处外），但我们不断增加的经验证据表明，除了强制性SAK测试之外，还需要采取政策干预措施来提高性侵犯的逮捕率。突击。