Abstract

Focused deterrence programs, which concentrate community and police resources on small groups of high-risk offenders, have been identified in a number of cities as an effective method to reduce violent crime. In 2013, the city of Detroit began its own “Ceasefire” program in two of its most violent police precincts, which continued through 2019. This study examines the community-level effect of the 2013–2019 Detroit Ceasefire initiative on fatal and non-fatal shooting victimization. We apply a synthetic control design to account for the complex, disaggregated data to identify the effect of Ceasefire above and beyond the substantial decreases in gun violence observed throughout Detroit. We find marginal decreases in victimizations among those aged 15-24 and 25-34 in the year after Ceasefire was re-organized in 2015, but these effects were limited and largely converged to trends observed in the rest of the city. We discuss the results of this evaluation with a focus on the importance of effective implementation as well as the challenges of studying violence prevention strategies under ever evolving conditions.

摘要

在一些城市中，已经确定了针对性的威慑方案，将社区和警察资源集中在少数高风险罪犯身上，这是减少暴力犯罪的有效方法。2013年，底特律市在两个最暴力的警察辖区开始了自己的“停火”计划，该计划一直持续到2019年。本研究考察了2013-2019年底特律停火倡议对致命和非致命性的社区影响射击受害。我们采用综合控制设计来解释复杂的分类数据，以识别Ceasefire在整个底特律所观察到的枪支暴力大幅减少以上所带来的影响。我们发现，在2015年停火重组后的一年中，年龄在15-24岁和25-34岁之间的受害人数略有减少，但是这些影响是有限的，并且基本上已经汇聚到了该市其他地区观察到的趋势。我们将讨论评估的结果，重点是有效实施的重要性以及在不断变化的条件下研究预防暴力策略的挑战。