Abstract

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between foreign direct investment, trade openness and gross domestic product in BRICS countries over the period of 1990–2018. We applied auto regressive distributed lag model to test cointegration and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality tests. Empirical results show that FDI and trade openness have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. We also find there is a long-run relationship from both real effective exchange rate and gross capital formation to economic growth. The main results of causality analysis reveal that there is bidirectional causality from foreign direct investment to economic growth, trade openness to foreign direct investment, and unidirectional causality from trade openness to foreign direct investment.

摘要

在本文中，我们调查了 1990-2018 年间金砖国家的外国直接投资、贸易开放度和国内生产总值之间的因果关系。我们应用自回归分布式滞后模型来检验协整以及 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin Granger 因果关系检验。实证结果表明，FDI 和贸易开放对长期经济增长具有积极影响。我们还发现，实际有效汇率和资本形成总额与经济增长之间存在长期关系。因果关系分析的主要结果表明，外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系，贸易开放与外商直接投资之间存在双向因果关系，贸易开放与外商直接投资之间存在单向因果关系。