ABSTRACT

Climate change will impact nature-based tourism communities by altering weather patterns and influencing the supply of outdoor recreation resources. Visitors to these such destinations respond through recreation substitution, altering when, where, and how they participate in outdoor pursuits. Understanding predictors of recreation substitution is important for destinations considering how to best adapt to climate change. Using visitor-intercept data (n = 1,398) we explored different visitor segments' intent to utilize recreation substitution in response to changing environmental conditions. Visitor segments characterized by low trip anticipation or a long travel distance were most likely to cancel their trips or travel elsewhere in pursuit of ideal recreation conditions. Spatial substitution was lower among visitors with higher degrees of destination loyalty, highlighting the value of communication strategies that foster connections to place. Targeted marketing to retain visitor segments likely to cancel trips, may minimize negative impacts of climate change on travel behavior.

摘要

气候变化将改变天气模式并影响户外休闲资源的供应，从而对自然旅游社区产生影响。这些目的地的游客通过娱乐替代来做出反应，改变他们何时，何地以及如何参与户外活动。了解休闲替代的预测因素对于考虑如何最佳适应气候变化的目的地非常重要。使用访问者拦截数据（n = 1,398），我们探索了不同游客群体利用娱乐替代品来应对不断变化的环境条件的意图。以低旅行预期或长旅行距离为特征的访问者群体最有可能为了追求理想的娱乐条件而取消旅行或前往其他地方。在具有较高目的地忠诚度的游客中，空间替代率较低，这凸显了促进与地方联系的交流策略的价值。进行有针对性的营销以保留可能取消旅行的游客群体，可以最大程度地减少气候变化对旅行行为的负面影响。