International Review of Applied Economics Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2020.1866973 J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés 1
ABSTRACT
This paper analyses a broad range of macro variables to assess the effects they have on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. We consider 23 explanatory variables on health, political, and economic factors for 94 countries. Given the vast number of explanatory variables analysed, the paper employs advanced statistical tools for the analysis. We use regularised regression and dimension reduction methods to increase estimation efficiency. We find that alcohol drinking is associated with an increase in the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. In this regard, our results support the World Health Organization’s recommendation of reducing alcohol drinking during the pandemic. Furthermore, our results show that the level of trust inside the society is associated with both the number of cases and deaths. A higher level of trust in medical personnel is associated with fewer cases, while a higher level of trust in the government is associated with fewer deaths due to COVID-19. Finally, hospital beds per thousand inhabitants are a statistically significant factor in reducing the number of deaths. Our results are robust to the estimation method, and they are of interest to governments and authorities responsible for the control of the pandemic.
中文翻译:
COVID-19的政治风险因素
摘要
本文分析了一系列宏变量,以评估它们对因COVID-19引起的病例数和死亡数的影响。我们考虑了94个国家/地区关于健康,政治和经济因素的23个解释变量。鉴于已分析了大量的解释变量,本文采用了先进的统计工具进行分析。我们使用正则回归和降维方法来提高估计效率。我们发现饮酒与因COVID-19导致的病例数和死亡数增加有关。在这方面,我们的结果支持世界卫生组织关于减少大流行期间饮酒的建议。此外,我们的结果表明,社会内部的信任水平与病例数和死亡人数均相关。对医务人员的信任程度越高,病例越少;而对政府的信任程度越高,则由于COVID-19导致的死亡人数越少。最后,每千名居民的病床数是减少死亡人数的统计显着因素。我们的结果对估计方法是可靠的,并且对控制大流行病的政府和当局也很感兴趣。