Abstract The aim of this article is to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on EMDEs focusing on the performance of their Balance of Payments (BOPs). EMDEs are facing simultaneous hits in their BOPs as they try to cope with the domestic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those impacts call for a rethinking of some aspects of the Keynesian Approach to BOPs while strengthening the view of international financial markets as hierarchical and volatile institutions. The external impacts can be summarized in four channels: (i) The unprecedented capital flight which has led to depreciation, scarcity of hard currency, debt problems and rising spreads in domestic currency; (ii) the fall in commodity prices, a major component of the export basket in most EMDEs; (iii) the contraction in global aggregate demand and supply, which together with lower commodity prices lead to reduced export earnings; and (iv) the decrease in remittances, a major supply of hard currency in several EMDEs and Low-Income Countries (LICs). The concomitant impact of these “storms” has limited the capabilities and efficiency of governments to adopt fiscal and monetary stimulus packages and to respond to the sanitary requirements. Government reactions are also clogged by the large weight of the informal sector in EMDEs.

中文翻译：

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风暴汇聚：COVID-19 大流行对新兴市场和发展中经济体 (EMDE) 国际收支的影响

摘要 本文的目的是追踪 COVID-19 大流行危机对 EMDE 的影响，重点关注其国际收支 (BOP) 的表现。EMDE 在努力应对 COVID-19 大流行对国内的影响时，同时面临着 BOP 的冲击。这些影响要求我们重新思考凯恩斯主义国际收支方法的某些方面，同时加强将国际金融市场视为等级森严和不稳定的机构的观点。外部影响可以概括为四个方面： (i) 前所未有的资本外逃，导致贬值、硬通货稀缺、债务问题和本币利差上升；(ii) 大宗商品价格下跌，这是大多数新兴市场经济体出口篮子的主要组成部分；(iii) 全球总供需收缩，这与较低的商品价格一起导致出口收入减少；(iv) 汇款减少，这是几个 EMDE 和低收入国家 (LIC) 的主要硬通货供应。这些“风暴”的伴随影响限制了政府采用财政和货币刺激计划以及应对卫生要求的能力和效率。新兴市场和发展中经济体中非正规部门的巨大比重也阻碍了政府的反应。