The spread and threat of Covid-19 have resulted in unprecedented economic and public health responses in Indonesia and elsewhere. We analyse the direct and indirect effects of Covid-19 on life expectancy and poverty in Indonesia, and the responses to the virus. We view life expectancy and poverty as indicators of quantity and quality of life. Our analysis shows that the indirect effects on life expectancy, which operate through lower future income, exceed the direct effects of Covid-19-related deaths by at least five orders of magnitude. The reduction in long-run real income due to the Covid-19 shock may reduce life expectancy by up to 1.7 years, compared with what could otherwise be expected. In contrast, even if the Covid-19 death toll to date were 40 times worse, life expectancy would fall by just two days. Given this imbalance between direct and indirect effects, any interventions to reduce the risk of Covid-19 must be finely targeted and must consider indirect effects. Our analysis of the geographic pattern of poverty effects, which is based on near real-time mobility data, discusses how targeted interventions that are less fiscally costly could be developed. Such interventions should pose less of a threat to future growth and may help to reduce the indirect effects of the Covid-19 shock.

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Covid-19 对印度尼西亚预期寿命和贫困的直接和间接影响

Covid-19 的传播和威胁在印度尼西亚和其他地方导致了前所未有的经济和公共卫生反应。我们分析了 Covid-19 对印度尼西亚预期寿命和贫困的直接和间接影响，以及对该病毒的反应。我们将预期寿命和贫困视为生活数量和质量的指标。我们的分析表明，通过降低未来收入对预期寿命的间接影响比 Covid-19 相关死亡的直接影响至少高出五个数量级。与原本可以预期的相比，Covid-19 冲击导致的长期实际收入减少可能会使预期寿命减少多达 1.7 年。相比之下，即使迄今为止 Covid-19 的死亡人数增加了 40 倍，预期寿命也只会下降两天。鉴于直接和间接影响之间的这种不平衡，任何降低 Covid-19 风险的干预措施都必须有针对性，并且必须考虑间接影响。我们基于近乎实时的流动数据对贫困影响的地理模式进行了分析，讨论了如何制定财政成本较低的有针对性的干预措施。此类干预措施对未来增长的威胁较小，可能有助于减少 Covid-19 冲击的间接影响。