The J‐curve outlines the path of movement in the trade balance after a currency is devalued or depreciated, deteriorating in the short run but improving in the long run. One study in this journal investigated the concept between the UK and each of its 10 large partners from the EU. The study found support for the J‐curve effect in the UK trade balance with Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Netherlands. However, the findings were based on sign misinterpretation. If correctly interpreted, the findings actually support the inverse J‐curve, i.e., long‐run deterioration in the bilateral trade balances. The results were based on using the linear ARDL approach. We revisit the issue and use the Nonlinear ARDL approach. We find support for the asymmetric J‐curve effect in the bilateral trade balance between the UK and France, Greece, Portugal and Spain and an asymmetric inverse J‐curve in the case of Finland.

中文翻译：

---

估算英国和欧元区之间的双边J曲线：不对称分析

J曲线概述了货币贬值或贬值后贸易余额的变动路径，短期内恶化，但长期内改善。该期刊的一项研究调查了英国与其来自欧盟的10个主要合作伙伴之间的概念。研究发现，英国与比利时，德国，法国，意大利和荷兰的贸易平衡中的J曲线效应得到了支持。但是，这些发现是基于对符号的误解。如果正确解释，这些发现实际上将支持反J曲线，即双边贸易平衡的长期恶化。结果基于使用线性ARDL方法的结果。我们重新审视此问题，并使用非线性ARDL方法。我们发现英国与法国，希腊，