Abstract

Northern Pakistan is a rugged mountainous area that is seismically active, high gradients, disintegrated lithology, and glaciers in the high peaks. District Ghizer lies among the most vulnerable areas and experience landslides every year due to different causative factors. This study has carried out to prepare a detailed landslide inventory and to develop a susceptibility model for the area. The most followed and probabilistic approach, Frequency Ratio (FR) model and a semi-qualitative Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach were applied to find the correlation between causative factors and mapped landslides. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique was applied to check deformation movement in the susceptible zones of extracted models, which showed the high Line of Sight (LOS) deformation velocity in high susceptible zones of both models. The extracted Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) models showed 82.82% and 73.43% of prediction accuracy for FR and AHP method calculated by Area Under Curve (AUC) of Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. The models revealed Slope, barrenness, and Geology are the main causative factors of landslide activities in the study area. Finally, both Landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five susceptibility classes. As the study area is very prone to landslide disasters so these susceptibility models will be helpful to delineate hazardous zones for the medication of future landslides disasters in the area as well as it can be used as a tool in the planning strategies by decision-makers in development projects in the area.

摘要

巴基斯坦北部是一个崎岖的山区，地震活跃，坡度高，岩性瓦解，高峰有冰川。吉泽区是最脆弱的地区之一，由于不同的成因，每年都会发生山体滑坡。这项研究的目的是准备一份详细的滑坡清单，并为该地区开发一个敏感性模型。应用最多的概率方法、频率比 (FR) 模型和半定性分析层次过程 (AHP) 方法来寻找成因因素与映射的滑坡之间的相关性。应用持续散射体干涉仪 (PSI) 干涉合成孔径雷达 (InSAR) 技术检查提取模型的敏感区域的变形运动，这显示了两种模型的高敏感区的高视线 (LOS) 变形速度。提取的滑坡敏感性指数（LSI）模型显示，采用接收器操作特征（ROC）方法的曲线下面积（AUC）计算的FR和AHP方法的预测准确度分别为82.82%和73.43%。模型显示，坡度、贫瘠和地质是研究区滑坡活动的主要成因。最后，将两个滑坡敏感性指数图分为五个敏感性等级。由于研究区很容易发生滑坡灾害，因此这些敏感性模型将有助于划定该地区未来滑坡灾害的药物危险区域，并可作为决策者在规划策略中使用的工具。该地区的开发项目。