Abstract

Although Kyrgyzstan has recently withstood two coup d'états (or so-called “revolutions”) and a bout of ethnic violence, the politicization of the legal system by successive presidents portends a troublesome future. The 2017 transition from Almazbek Atambaev to Sooronbai Jeenbekov gave way to the former's arrest and imprisonment. A series of other prior arrests and incarcerations of (former) parliamentarians indicate that Kyrgyzstan's presidents are regularly manipulating the legal system to persecute and neutralize their rivals. This article posits that the repetitive rupturing of legal institutions will usher in an era of heightened illiberalism, elite uncertainty, and the further discrediting of the political system, thereby placing the state on the brink of failure. The mass uprising in response to the October 2020 parliamentary electoral results and most recent coup d'état indicate that the prospects of the Kyrgyz Republic suffering a collapse are real.

摘要

尽管吉尔吉斯斯坦最近经受了两次政变（或所谓的“革命”）和种族暴力冲突，但历届总统对法律制度的政治化预示着一个麻烦的未来。2017年从Almazbek Atambaev到Sooronbai Jeenbekov的过渡被前者的逮捕和监禁所取代。先前对（前）议员的其他一系列逮捕和监禁表明，吉尔吉斯斯坦总统定期操纵法律制度，迫害和中和其竞争对手。本文认为，法律机构的反复破裂将迎来一个时代，即自由主义加剧，精英不确定性加深，政治制度进一步失信的时代，从而使国家处于失败的边缘。