Influenza is a public health issue that needs to be addressed strategically. The assessment of detailed infectious profiles is an important part of this effort. Household transmission data play a key role in estimating such profiles. We used diagnostic and questionnaire-based data on influenza patients at a Japanese clinic to estimate the detailed infectious period (as well as incubation period, symptomatic and infectious periods, and extended infectious period after recovery) and the secondary attack ratio (SAR) of influenza for households of various sizes based on a modified Cauchemez-type model. The data were from enrolled patients with confirmed influenza who were treated at the Hirotsu Clinic (Kawasaki, Japan) with a neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) during six northern hemisphere influenza seasons between 2010 and 2016. A total of 2342 outpatients, representing 1807 households, were included. For influenza type A, the average incubation period was 1.43 days (95% probability interval, 0.03–5.32 days). The estimated average symptomatic and infective period was 1.76 days (0.33–4.62 days); the extended infective period after recovery was 0.25 days. The estimated SAR rose from 20 to 32% as household size increased from 3 to 5. For influenza type B, the average incubation period, average symptomatic and infective period, and extended infective period were estimated as 1.66 days (0.21–4.61), 2.62 days (0.54–5.75) and 1.00 days, respectively. The SAR increased from 12 to 21% as household size increased from 3 to 5. All estimated periods of influenza type B were longer than the corresponding periods for type A. However, the SAR for type B was less than that for type A. These results may reflect Japanese demographics and treatment policy. Understanding the infectious profiles of influenza is necessary for assessing public health measures.

中文翻译：

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根据临床病例重建东京郊区的流感家庭传播

流感是一个公共卫生问题，需要从战略上加以解决。详细的感染特征评估是这项工作的重要组成部分。家庭传输数据在估计此类资料中起着关键作用。我们使用日本诊所针对流感患者的诊断和基于问卷的数据来估计流感的详细感染期（以及潜伏期，症状和感染期以及恢复后的延长感染期）和流感的二次发作率（SAR）基于改进的Cauchemez型模型的各种规模的家庭。数据来自在2010年至2016年的六个北半球流感季节期间，在Hirotsu诊所（日本川崎）接受了神经氨酸酶抑制剂（NAI）治疗的已确诊流感的入选患者。包括2342例门诊病人，代表1807户家庭。对于A型流感，平均潜伏期为1.43天（95％的概率区间为0.03-5.32天）。估计的平均症状和感染期为1.76天（0.33–4.62天）。恢复后的延长感染期为0.25天。随着家庭人数从3增加到5，SAR估计值从20％上升到32％。对于B型流感，平均潜伏期，平均症状和感染期以及延长的感染期估计为1.66天（0.21–4.61），2.62天（0.54-5.75）和1.00天。随着家庭人数从3增加到5，SAR值从12％上升到21％。B型流感的所有估计时期都比A型流感的相应时期长。但是，B型流感的SAR值小于A型SAR。这些结果可能反映了日本的人口统计和治疗政策。了解流感的感染特征对于评估公共卫生措施非常必要。