Can oil discovery shocks affect the demand for protectionism? An intertemporal model of Dutch disease indicates that if the tradable sector is politically dominant then an oil discovery can induce protectionism. If the economy is also credit constrained, this effect is intensified upon discovery, but partially reversed when oil revenues start to flow. We test these predictions using 16.2 million, HS-6 level, bilateral tariff rates that cover 5718 products in 155 countries over the period 1988–2012, and data on worldwide discoveries of giant oil and gas fields. Our identification strategy rests on the exogeneity of the timing of discoveries. Our empirical results indicate that an oil discovery increases tariffs during pre-production years and decreases tariffs in the years to follow yet to a lesser extent, most notably in capital scarce economies with a relatively dominant tradable sector. Our baseline estimates indicate that a giant oil field discovery induces a rise of approximately 13% in the average tariff over the course of 10 years; this increase is approximately 2.5 times larger during the pre-production period when the oil discovery represents a pure news shock.

石油发现的冲击会影响对保护主义的需求吗？荷兰疾病的跨时期模型表明，如果可交易部门在政治上占主导地位，那么石油发现会诱发贸易保护主义。如果经济也受到信贷约束，那么一旦发现，这种影响就会加剧，但是当石油收入开始流动时，这种影响就会部分逆转。我们使用1620万，HS-6水平，涵盖155个国家/地区的1988-2012年期间的5718种产品的双边关税税率以及有关全球大型油气田发现的数据来检验这些预测。我们的识别策略取决于发现时间的外生性。我们的经验结果表明，石油发现增加了预生产年份的关税，并降低了随后几年的关税，但幅度较小，最明显的是在可交易部门相对占主导地位的资本稀缺经济体中。我们的基准估计表明，一个巨大的油田发现在10年的时间里平均关税提高了约13％；在石油发现代表纯粹的新闻冲击的情况下，预生产期间这一增长约为2.5倍。