Research regarding tourism’s effect on the subjective well-being (SWB) of destination residents has provided important insight, but it generally has relied on indirect analyses and diverse measures. This study used livability theory and a novel contingent SWB method in which respondents directly reported anticipated SWB effects. This method is exploratory, but it provides greater confidence in causal relationships. Results from a general population survey in Oregon (USA) suggested the method functioned as intended. County-level population growth and visitor intensity predicted perceived current impacts of tourism. In turn, perceived impacts predicted change in SWB contingent on a vignette reflecting a 20% increase in tourists. Across all individuals and counties, average SWB changes were negative for the environment domain and positive for other domains. Practical implications are discussed, with the most positive SWB effects from tourism development expected to occur in counties with low visitor intensity, especially those with low population growth.

关于旅游业对目的地居民主观幸福感的影响的研究提供了重要的见解，但通常依赖于间接分析和多种措施。这项研究使用了可居住性理论和一种新颖的或有SWB方法，其中，受访者直接报告了预期的SWB效果。这种方法是探索性的，但它对因果关系提供了更大的信心。俄勒冈州（美国）的一项总体人口调查结果表明，该方法可按预期运行。县级人口增长和游客密度预测了当前旅游业的影响。反过来，感知的影响预测SWB的变化取决于小插图，反映出游客增加了20％。在所有个人和县里，SWB的平均变化在环境域中为负，而在其他域中为正。讨论了实际意义，预计旅游业发展对SWB的最积极影响将发生在游客强度低的县，尤其是人口增长低的县。