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Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future
Environmental Science and Pollution Research ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4
Imran Khan 1, 2 , Hongdou Lei 2 , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah 3 , Inayat Khan 4 , Ihsan Muhammad 5
Affiliation  

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country’s GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.



中文翻译:

巴基斯坦的气候变化影响评估,洪水管理和缓解策略,以实现可持续的未来

近年来,洪水不仅破坏了社会增长,而且阻碍了经济发展。在许多国家,这种全球流行病已影响到生命,财产和经济损失。巴基斯坦在过去几年中经历了许多洪水。由于经济,社会和气候变化,巴基斯坦面临洪灾的风险。为了克服这个问题,该国的机构采取了各种措施。但是,这些措施还不足以确保容易发生灾害的社区和地区的安全。因此,必须预测未来与洪水有关的风险,并采取必要的措施来减轻洪水造成的不利影响和损失。本文旨在探讨巴基斯坦的洪水,分析洪水对人类和环境的不利影响,并提出未来可能的可持续选择。渡槽洪水分析仪软件用于检查洪水对国内生产总值(GDP),城市破坏和人民生活的影响,并制定了数年的防洪计划。为了充分评估未来的变化,采用了各种防洪级别以及每种保护级别的三种方案,它们代表了社会经济和气候变化。调查结果表明,如果没有防洪保护,则两年洪灾在任何给定地区发生洪灾的可能性都为50%,并且可能不会对GDP,人口和城市破坏造成重大影响。同样,五年洪水中发生洪灾的可能性为20%,这可能会导致该国的GDP约204亿美元,有840万人口处于危险之中,而城市遭受的损失则为14亿美元。此外,十年的洪灾发生洪灾的可能性为10%,可能对巴基斯坦的国民生产总值造成289亿美元的影响,巴基斯坦的受灾人口为1190万,城市损失为24亿美元。巴基斯坦政府应制定适当的气候变化政策,改善灾难准备,建造新的水坝,并更新有关部门以减轻洪水的不利影响。

更新日期:2021-02-10
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