This article calculates the real exchange rate misalignment (RERM) of the rupiah to examine the role of misalignment in exchange rate crises in Indonesia. The article does this by employing an autoregressive regime-switching model and behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The findings are as follows. First, net foreign assets and the relative productivity differential between sectors significantly influence the equilibrium exchange rate, indicating that external and internal balance determine the behaviour of the rupiah in the long run. Second, the BEER approach can properly predict misalignment of the rupiah, especially through explaining the overvaluation periods of the rupiah before the Asian financial crisis. The regime switching model performs well in identifying episodes of stability and volatility in the rupiah. Third, of the 17 crisis episodes experienced in Indonesia in 1981–2012, 10 were preceded by high RERM.

中文翻译：

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实际汇率失调和货币危机

本文计算了印尼盾的实际汇率错位 (RERM)，以检验错位在印度尼西亚汇率危机中的作用。本文通过采用自回归制度转换模型和行为均衡汇率 (BEER) 方法来实现这一点。结果如下。首先，净外国资产和部门之间的相对生产率差异显着影响均衡汇率，表明外部和内部平衡决定了印尼盾的长期行为。其次，BEER 方法可以正确预测印尼盾的错位，特别是通过解释亚洲金融危机前印尼盾的高估时期。政权转换模型在识别印尼盾的稳定性和波动性方面表现良好。第三，