ABSTRACT The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

中文翻译：

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海湾合作委员会君主制：地缘政治变化中对伊朗威胁的看法

摘要 美国 (US) 从更广泛的中东地区逐步缩减所引发的系统性转变已彻底改变了海湾合作委员会 (GCC) 君主制国家的安全观念。裁员引发了美国与海湾合作委员会关系中的安全困境，尤其是在他们对伊朗的看法方面。然而，影响并不均衡。虽然这一困境引发了三个较鹰派的国家——沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和巴林——的担忧，但它也引发了三个较弱的国家——阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔的陷入困境的担忧。这两个阵营之间的主要区别在于他们对威胁的看法。似乎受国家意识形态和宗教、身份叙事、社会政治人口统计学以及最终的领导力认知的影响，