ABSTRACT Almost thirty years ago, I wrote a paper about a set of ‘revolutionary’ theories that were emerging in disparate fields, challenging the traditional assumption that large scale change occurs gradually and in tiny increments. They suggested, instead, that systems change more dramatically, through the alternation of long and stable ‘equilibriums’ with relatively short, disruptive ‘punctuations’ of transformative reconfiguration. In this paper I reflect on how my own understanding of this Punctuated Equilibrium paradigm has been influenced since then by my experience conducting two long-term studies – one on the founding and growth of an innovative NGO in a Bornean rain-forest, and one on women’s adult development in the context of the late twentieth century women’s movement. I use examples from these studies to re-examine the importance of the Punctuated Equilibrium paradigm for understanding complex systems, not only for comprehending and diagnosing problems accurately, but for creating and carrying out effective solutions.

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关于革命变革的思考

摘要大约三十年前，我写了一篇论文，讲述了在不同领域中涌现的一系列“革命性”理论，挑战了传统的假设，即大范围变化是逐渐发生并以很小的增量发生的。相反，他们建议通过长期稳定的“平衡”与相对短暂的，破坏性的“重新配置”“标点”的交替来改变系统，从而发生更大的变化。在本文中，我反思了自此以来我进行两项长期研究的经验如何影响了我对这种标点符号平衡范式的理解，一项研究涉及在婆罗洲雨林中建立和发展一个创新型非政府组织，另一项涉及20世纪后期妇女运动背景下的妇女成年发展。