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Do LED lightbulbs save natural gas? Interpreting simultaneous cross-energy program impacts using electricity and natural gas billing data
Environmental Research Communications ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-06 , DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/abddc7
Oluwatobi G Adekanye 1 , Alex Davis 1 , Ins L Azevedo 1, 2
Affiliation  

Local and state governments have made significant advances in creating, implementing, and evaluating energy efficiency programs in the buildings sector. Evaluations commonly use ex-post statistical models to complement ex-ante engineering estimates when determining program impacts. A critical assumption of data-driven evaluations is that reductions would not occur in the absence of the program. This assumption is difficult to test, particularly if other unobserved changes to the building’s energy profile coincide with the program’s adoption. We provide a method to detect a class of unobserved simultaneous cross-energy changes in a building’s energy profile by examining the treatment effects of electricity-only programs on natural gas use and vice versa. We apply the method to a panel of residential energy efficiency implementations with monthly electricity and gas data from 2010 to 2016 in the City of Palo Alto, California. Using difference-in-differences and event history analyses, we find evidence of significant gas reductions estimated for some electricity-only programs, suggesting that households implemented unobserved changes at the same time as those programs. Our results highlight how data-driven analyses may not adequately estimate program impacts, and the value of simultaneous electricity and natural gas measurements for detecting and interpreting unobserved changes to energy use at the household level. Lastly, we present evidence that energy savings from non-monetary interventions can exceed those which offer financial rewards for energy efficiency.



中文翻译:

LED灯泡可以节省天然气吗?使用电力和天然气账单数据解释交叉能源计划的同时影响

地方和州政府在创建,实施和评估建筑行业的能效计划方面取得了重大进展。在确定计划影响时,评估通常使用事后统计模型来补充事前工程估算。数据驱动评估的一个关键假设是,如果没有该计划,就不会减少费用。这个假设很难检验,特别是如果其他未观察到的建筑物能源状况变化与该计划的采用相吻合。我们提供了一种方法,可以通过检查仅用电的程序对天然气使用的处理效果(反之亦然)来检测建筑物的能源分布中一类未观测到的同时发生的交叉能源变化。我们将该方法应用于2010年至2016年间加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托市每月电能和天然气数据的住宅能源效率实施小组。使用差异差异和事件历史分析,我们发现了一些仅用电的计划估计有大量气体减少的证据,这表明家庭与那些计划同时实施了未观察到的变化。我们的结果强调了数据驱动的分析如何无法充分估计计划的影响,以及同时进行电和天然气测量的价值,以检测和解释家庭一级能源使用的未观察到的变化。最后,我们提供的证据表明,通过非货币干预节省的能源可以超过为提高能效提供财务奖励的节省的能源。

更新日期:2021-02-06
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