ABSTRACT

While Europe’s so-called migration crisis is of fairly recent origin, some of the continent’s centre-right parties have been successfully politicising immigration for at least half a century. But that success and that politicisation can come at a heavy price – for the country, for the party, and for those who lead it or want to lead it. With both incumbents and challengers doing their best (and doing a great deal) to determine the party line on the issue, politicisation of immigration for electoral and personal advantage can make for incoherent, even counterproductive public policy. It can also tempt the leaders, both actual and aspirant, of centre-right parties into making promises to restrict immigration which are impossible to keep, thereby raising the salience of the issue and threatening their ownership of it. Attempts to hold on to, or to regain, ownership can, along with intra-party competition, create a vicious cycle, driving policy in an ever more unrealistic direction and creating not only serious internal instability but immense external costs. The Conservative Party’s experience is a case in point.

摘要

虽然欧洲所谓的移民危机是最近才出现的，但至少半个世纪以来，欧洲大陆的一些中右翼政党已经成功地将移民政治化。但这种成功和政治化可能会付出沉重的代价——对国家、对党、对那些领导或想要领导它的人。由于现任者和挑战者都在尽最大努力（并且做了大量工作）来确定该问题上的党派路线，为了选举和个人利益而将移民政治化可能会导致不连贯甚至适得其反的公共政策。它还可能诱使中右翼政党的实际和有抱负的领导人承诺限制无法兑现的移民，从而提高问题的重要性并威胁到他们的所有权。努力坚持，或者重新获得所有权，与党内竞争一起，会造成恶性循环，将政策推向越来越不切实际的方向，不仅会造成严重的内部不稳定，还会造成巨大的外部成本。保守党的经历就是一个例子。