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Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis
Information Technology and Management ( IF 2.310 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s10799-021-00323-x
Saurabh Panwar , P. K. Kapur , Ompal Singh

Information technology (IT) innovations require strategic planning for issues related to the launch time of the new generation, technological advancement, and potential user base. The present study seeks to develop a decision-making model that effectively facilitates the predictive analysis of the diffusion paradigm for multi-generational services and the optimal timing of new service introduction. This paper analyzes the generation substitution and customer attrition behavior simultaneously in the adoption process of service generations. A novel multi-generational diffusion model is proposed for those service innovations that coexist in the market at the same time and divides the firm’s market shares. Also, the proposed study intends to devise a decision model to assess the launch scenarios for a new service generation. The optimization problem takes into account the trade-off between the preceding generation’s subscription level and service development cost. The proposed methodological framework is implemented on the telecommunication service line. An empirical analysis is conducted to examine the model performance and prediction ability as compared to the existing models. The findings show that the parameter estimation using the proposed diffusion model will lead to unbiased parameter values and better forecasting results. A numerical illustration is provided to solve the proposed optimization problem using the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed on critical parameters to examine their impact on the computational results. The present research on optimal introduction time of a new service generation yields crucial managerial insights for businesses and policymakers.



中文翻译:

预测移动电信业务的扩散动态和启动时间策略:一项实证分析

信息技术(IT)创新需要针对与新一代产品的发布时间,技术进步和潜在用户群相关的问题进行战略规划。本研究旨在开发一种决策模型,以有效地促进多代服务的扩散范式的预测分析和新服务引入的最佳时机。本文在服务代采用过程中同时分析了代代和客户流失行为。针对那些同时存在于市场中并划分公司市场份额的服务创新,提出了一种新颖的多代扩散模型。此外,拟议的研究旨在设计一种决策模型,以评估新一代服务的启动方案。优化问题考虑了上一代的订阅级别和服务开发成本之间的权衡。拟议的方法框架是在电信服务线上实施的。进行了实证分析,以检查模型性能和预测能力与现有模型相比。研究结果表明,使用提出的扩散模型进行参数估计将导致无偏参数值和更好的预测结果。提供了使用多属性效用理论(MAUT)解决所提出的优化问题的数值说明。此外,对关键参数执行敏感性分析以检查其对计算结果的影响。

更新日期:2021-02-09
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