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U.S. Pharmaceutical Markets: Expenditures, Health Insurance, New Products and Generic Prescribing from 1960 to 2016
International Journal of the Economics of Business Pub Date : 2019-09-24 , DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2019.1651150
Z. John Lu 1 , William S. Comanor 2 , Elliot Cherkas 3 , Llad Phillips 4
Affiliation  

Abstract Between 1960 and 2016 per capita expenditures on retail pharmaceuticals increased from $85.12 to $922.50 in 2009 prices, while the share of spending covered by insurance programs grew to 86%. The introduction of new molecular entities followed only a weak upward trend. Following passage of the Hatch Waxman Act in 1984, the share of retail prescriptions dispensed as generics has expanded from 19% to almost 90%. By employing a three-equation Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model and Granger causality, this paper assesses empirically the interdependence among these variables. Our most important finding is that increases in insurance coverage on pharmaceuticals contributed significantly to the spending growth, which in turn led to further insurance expansion. In addition, introduction of new drugs also has contributed to enhanced insurance coverage. While the expansion of generic prescribing has had a strong negative effect on spending, this effect has been largely offset by rapid increases in coverage.

中文翻译:

美国药品市场:1960年至2016年的支出,健康保险,新产品和一般处方

摘要1960年至2016年间,按零售价计算,人均医药零售支出从85.12美元增加到922.50美元,而保险计划覆盖的支出份额增长到86%。新的分子实体的引入仅遵循了微弱的上升趋势。1984年通过的《哈奇韦克斯曼法》(Hatch Waxman Act)之后,以非专利药的形式分发的零售处方的份额已从19%扩大到近90%。通过采用三方程向量自回归(VAR)模型和Granger因果关系,本文通过经验评估了这些变量之间的相互依赖性。我们最重要的发现是,药品保险覆盖率的提高极大地促进了支出的增长,进而导致了保险业务的进一步扩大。此外,新药的引进也有助于扩大保险范围。虽然通用处方的扩展对支出产生了强烈的负面影响,但这种覆盖已被覆盖范围的迅速增加所抵消。
更新日期:2019-09-24
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