Abstract De-carbonization to restrict future global warming to 1.5 °C is technically feasible but may impose a “limit” or “planetary boundary” to economic growth, depending on whether or not human society can decouple growth from emissions. In this paper, we assess the viability of decoupling. First, we develop a prognosis of climate-constrained global growth for 2014–2050 using the transparent Kaya identity. Second, we use the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve framework to assess the effect of economic growth on emissions using measures of territorial and consumption-based emissions. We run fixed-effects regressions using OECD data for 58 countries during 2007–2015 and source alternative emissions data starting in 1992 from two other databases. While there is weak evidence suggesting a decoupling of emissions and growth at high-income levels, the main estimation sample indicates that emissions are monotonically increasing with per-capita GDP. We draw out the implications for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.

中文翻译：

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经济增长与碳排放：“温室地球”之路以善意铺就

摘要 将未来全球变暖限制在 1.5 °C 的脱碳在技术上是可行的，但可能会对经济增长施加“限制”或“地球边界”，这取决于人类社会能否将增长与排放脱钩。在本文中，我们评估了解耦的可行性。首先，我们使用透明的 Kaya 身份对 2014-2050 年受气候限制的全球增长进行预测。其次，我们使用碳库兹涅茨曲线框架来评估经济增长对排放的影响，使用基于地域和消费的排放量。我们使用 2007-2015 年 58 个国家的 OECD 数据运行固定效应回归，并从 1992 年开始从其他两个数据库中获取替代排放数据。虽然有微弱的证据表明高收入水平的排放和增长脱钩，主要估算样本表明，排放量随人均 GDP 单调增加。我们提出了对气候政策和具有约束力的减排义务的影响。