This Presentation examines Indonesia’s recent declaration to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPPA), as announced by President Widodo during a State visit to the United States in October 2015, and his subsequent announcement that this accession would occur within two years. The Presentation explores both the implications for Indonesia of TPPA membership as well as the likelihood of achieving the President’s two-year aspiration. It focuses on one of the more controversial elements of the TPPA, namely, the inclusion of Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions, particularly in light of former President Yudhoyono’s 2014 determination to terminate all its bilateral investment treaties with ISDS provisions. In joining the TPPA, Indonesia commits to its ISDS provisions, likely without carve-outs or reservations. The change may perhaps be driven by a perceived imperative to open up Indonesian economy to greater international investment, and to compete with other growing ASEAN economies. However, the future of the TPPA is not necessarily assured, with the U.S. Presidential election and U.S. domestic politics having a major impact on its future status, or even very existence. President Obama considers it a key element of his Presidential legacy, and has Congressional agreement for a “fast-track” vote, but both Presidential candidates, as well as members of both parties in Congress, have at times soundly criticised or even rejected the TPPA. It appears increasingly unlikely that he will succeed in achieving ratification as he enters his Presidency’s “lame duck” period. The Presentation also examines the implications for Indonesia and for the TPPA if the United States unduly delays or even rejects its own domestic ratification of the TPPA.

中文翻译：

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印度尼西亚与跨太平洋伙伴关系协议 (TPPA)：时间的奢侈

本演示文稿审查了印度尼西亚最近宣布加入跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 (TPPA)，这是佐科总统在 2015 年 10 月对美国进行国事访问期间宣布的，以及他随后宣布将在两年内加入的声明。演讲探讨了加入 TPPA 对印度尼西亚的影响以及实现总统两年期愿望的可能性。它侧重于 TPPA 中更具争议性的要素之一，即纳入投资者与国家争端解决 (ISDS) 条款，特别是考虑到前总统尤多约诺 2014 年决定终止所有包含 ISDS 条款的双边投资条约。在加入 TPPA 时，印度尼西亚承诺其 ISDS 条款，可能没有例外或保留。这种变化可能是由于一种被认为必须向更大的国际投资开放印度尼西亚经济并与其他不断增长的东盟经济体竞争的迫切需要。然而，TPPA的未来并不一定是确定的，美国总统大选和美国国内政治对其未来的地位，甚至是存在都有重大影响。奥巴马总统认为这是他总统遗产的一个关键因素，并在国会同意进行“快速通道”投票，但两位总统候选人以及国会两党成员有时都强烈批评甚至拒绝 TPPA . 随着他进入总统任期的“跛脚鸭”时期，他成功获得批准似乎越来越不可能。