Purpose

Climatic extreme events are predicted to occur more frequently and intensely and will significantly threat the living of residents in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, this study aims to assess climatic extremes’ response to the emerging climate change mitigation strategy using a marine cloud brightening (MCB) scheme.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System model simulations of a MCB scheme, this study used six climatic extreme indices [i.e. the hottest days (TXx), the coolest nights (TNn), the warm spell duration (WSDI), the cold spell duration (CSDI), the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wettest consecutive five days (RX5day)] to analyze spatiotemporal evolution of climate extreme events in the arid Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula Zone with and without MCB implementation.

Findings

Compared with a Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, from 2030 to 2059, implementation of MCB is predicted to decrease the mean annual TXx and TNn indices by 0.4–1.7 and 0.3–2.1°C, respectively, for most of the Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone. It would also shorten the mean annual WSDI index by 118–183 days and the mean annual CSDI index by only 1–3 days, especially in the southern Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone. In terms of extreme precipitation, MCB could also decrease the mean annual CDD index by 5–25 days in the whole Sahara and Sahel belt and increase the mean annual RX5day index by approximately 10 mm in the east part of the Sahel belt during 2030–2059.

Originality/value

The results provide the first insights into the impacts of MCB on extreme climate in the arid Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone.

中文翻译：

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干旱的撒哈拉-萨赫勒-阿拉伯半岛地区对海洋云增亮的极端气候响应

目的

气候极端事件预计将更加频繁和强烈地发生，并将严重威胁干旱和半干旱地区居民的生活。因此，本研究旨在使用海洋云增亮 (MCB) 方案评估极端气候对新兴气候变化缓解策略的响应。

设计/方法/方法

本研究基于哈德利中心全球环境模型第 2 版-地球系统模型对 MCB 方案的模拟，使用了六个极端气候指数[即最热的日子 (TXx)、最冷的夜晚 (TNn)、暖期持续时间 (WSDI)、寒潮持续时间 (CSDI)、连续干旱天数 (CDD) 和最湿连续五天 (RX5day)] 来分析干旱的撒哈拉-萨赫勒-阿拉伯半岛地区气候极端事件的时空演变，无论是否实施 MCB。

发现

与代表性浓度路径 4.5 情景相比，从 2030 年到 2059 年，预计 MCB 的实施将使撒哈拉-萨赫勒-阿拉伯地区大部分地区的年均 TXx 和 TNn 指数分别降低 0.4-1.7 和 0.3-2.1°C半岛区。它还将使年均 WSDI 指数缩短 118-183 天，年均 CSDI 指数仅缩短 1-3 天，尤其是在撒哈拉-萨赫勒-阿拉伯半岛南部地区。在极端降水方面，2030-2059年，MCB还可以使整个撒哈拉和萨赫勒带的年平均CDD指数下降5-25天，并使萨赫勒带东部的年平均RX5天指数增加约10毫米.

原创性/价值

结果提供了关于 MCB 对干旱撒哈拉 - 萨赫勒 - 阿拉伯半岛地区极端气候影响的第一个见解。