This paper seeks to assess the effectiveness of customs policies in increasing the resources devoted to controlling and inspection. Specifically, it seeks to analyze whether an increase in the administrative cost of collecting taxes on foreign trade in Ecuador contributes to reducing customs fraud. To this end, we identify and estimate a transfer function model (ARIMAX), considering information on foreign trade such as official international trade statistics report and tariff rates, as well as the execution of budgetary expenditure and Ecuador’s gross domestic product (GDP). The period under study includes quarterly series from 2006 to 2018. The results obtained by the model indicate that allocating greater material and budgetary resources to combat customs fraud does not always achieve the objective of reducing customs evasion.

中文翻译：

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发生海关逃避时的行政费用和关税税率：来自厄瓜多尔的证据

本文旨在评估海关政策在增加用于控制和检查的资源方面的有效性。具体而言，它试图分析厄瓜多尔对外贸征收税收的行政费用的增加是否有助于减少海关欺诈。为此，我们考虑到有关对外贸易的信息，例如官方国际贸易统计报告和关税税率，以及预算支出和厄瓜多尔的国内生产总值（GDP）的执行情况，来确定和估计转移函数模型（ARIMAX）。研究期间包括2006年至2018年的季度序列。该模型获得的结果表明，分配更多的物质和预算资源来打击海关欺诈行为并不能总能达到减少海关逃税的目的。