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Assessment of centennial (1918–2019) drought features in the Campania region by historical in situ measurements
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-08 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2021-41
Antonia Longobardi , Ouafik Boulariah , Paolo Villani

Abstract. Drought is a sustained period of below‐normal water availability. It is a recurring and worldwide phenomenon, but the Mediterranean basin is seen as a very vulnerable environment in this perspective and understanding historical drought conditions in this area is necessary to plan mitigation strategies to further face future climate change impacts. The reported research was aimed at the description of drought conditions and evolution for the Campania region (Southern Italy), assessed by the analysis of an in-situ measurement database which covers a centennial period from 1918–2019. SPI time series were reconstructed for different accumulation time scales (from 3 to 48 months) and the Modified Man Kendall and Sen's test were applied to identify SPI changes over time. SPI time series were mostly affected by a negative trend, significant for a very large area of the region, particularly evident for the accumulation scales larger than 12 months. Mean drought duration (MDD), severity (MDS) and peak (MDP) were furthermore investigated for both moderate (SPI ≤ −1) and extremely severe conditions (SPI ≤ −2). The accumulation scale affected the drought features, with longer duration and larger severity associated to the larger accumulation scales. Drought characteristics spatial patterns were not congruent for the different SPI time scales: if duration and severity were larger in the southern areas, peaks appeared mostly severe in the northern areas of the region. Extremely severe events were featured by lower durations and larger severity compared to the moderate drought events but were very less frequent (over 75 % less then) and did not appeared to be focused on specific areas of the region.

中文翻译:

通过历史现场测量评估坎帕尼亚地区百年(1918-2019)干旱特征

摘要。干旱是水供应低于正常水平的持续时期。这是一种反复发生的全球现象,但从这个角度来看,地中海盆地被视为非常脆弱的环境,因此,了解该地区的历史干旱条件对于规划缓解策略以进一步面对未来的气候变化影响是必要的。所报告的研究旨在描述坎帕尼亚地区(意大利南部)的干旱条件和演变,并通过对一个涵盖1918-2019年百年历史的实地测量数据库的分析进行了评估。针对不同的累积时间范围(3到48个月)重建了SPI时间序列,并应用了改良的Man Kendall和Sen检验来确定SPI随时间的变化。SPI时间序列主要受到负面趋势的影响,对于该地区的很大面积而言,这是非常重要的,尤其是对于大于12个月的堆积规模而言,尤为明显。此外,还针对中度(SPI≤-1)和极端严峻条件(SPI≤-2)考察了平均干旱持续时间(MDD),严重程度(MDS)和峰值(MDP)。蓄积规模影响干旱特征,持续时间较长,严重程度与较大的蓄积规模相关。在不同的SPI时间尺度上,干旱特征的空间格局并不完全一致:如果南部地区的持续时间和严重程度较大,则该地区北部地区的峰值似乎最严重。
更新日期:2021-02-08
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