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Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama
Journal of Wildlife Management ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-08 , DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21996
Brian Folt 1 , Jeffrey M. Goessling 2 , Anna Tucker 3 , Craig Guyer 4 , Sharon Hermann 5 , Ericha Shelton‐Nix 6 , Conor McGowan 7
Affiliation  

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30‐year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi‐state hierarchical mark‐recapture model to estimate sex‐ and stage‐specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male‐biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population‐level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译:

阿拉巴马州地鼠龟人口统计学和人口生存力的对比模式

种群生存力分析是预测受威胁物种的数量和灭绝风险的有用工具。在北美东南部,受到联邦威胁的地鼠乌龟(Gopherus polyphemus)是多种多样且濒临灭绝的长叶松树(Pinus palustris)的关键物种。)生态系统,研究人员建议乌龟种群正在减少,并且具有高度灭绝的风险。我们报告了对阿拉巴马州南部的地鼠龟进行的30年人口统计学研究(1991–2020年)的结果,那里3个人口稳定,其他3个人口下降。为了更好地了解与乌龟种群稳定和下降有关的人口生命率,我们使用了多州分层标记夺回模型来估计每个人口的性别和阶段特定的人口生命率模式。然后,我们建立了预测性种群模型,以预测种群动态并评估种群生存力背景下的灭绝风险。在稳定的人口中,人口结构没有显着变化,但在过去30年中,随着人口的减少,少年的数量减少了。表观存活率随年龄,性别和部位的不同而不同;成年人的存活率比未成年人高,但人口下降的女性存活率却比稳定的人群低得多。通过模拟,我们预测女性存活率较高的稳定种群将在接下来的100年中持续存在,但是女性存活率较低的地区将会下降,变得偏向男性,并且极有可能遭受灭绝。稳定的种群对成年女性表观存活率的变化最敏感。由于当地人口的生命率变化很大,因此我们的分析通过考虑人口模式的人口水平变化,改进了以前的北部地鼠龟人口统计模型,并且与先前的模型预测相反,这表明当栖息地处于环境中时,小型乌龟种群可以持续存在。有效管理。
更新日期:2021-02-08
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