This empirical and interdisciplinary study investigates the contribution of deeply enrooted social-political factors to the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability and amplification of cascading impacts of disasters, with implications on the creation and reinforcement of path dependency maintaining social-ecological systems on a maladaptive trajectory. Applying the Trajectory of Exposure and Vulnerability approach to Saint-Martin (Caribbean), we more specifically highlight how the causal chain linking historical geopolitical and political-institutional drivers to legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, planning-related and environmental drivers, created the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability over time and contributed to the propagation and amplification of the impacts of tropical cyclones Irma and José in 2017. We find that historical social-political dynamics involving unsustainable development and settlement patterns, the weakness of local institutions, population mistrust in public authorities, high social inequalities and environmental degradation maintained Saint-Martin on a maladaptive trajectory through powerful reinforcing mechanisms operating both between and during cyclonic events. This study demonstrates that long-term interdisciplinary approaches are required for a better understanding of path dependency and the identification of levers to break it in risk-prone contexts. In Saint-Martin, breaking path dependency requires the alignment of local institutional capacities with national risk reduction policies, the promotion of social justice and involvement of local communities in decision making. This study therefore confirms the relevance of backward-looking approaches to support forward-looking climate adaptation.

这项经验和跨学科研究调查了深深根深蒂固的社会政治因素对灾害暴露和脆弱性的累积以及灾害级联影响的扩大的影响，对建立和加强路径依存关系保持社会生态系统在适应不良轨迹上的影响。将暴露和脆弱性轨迹方法应用于圣马丁（加勒比海），我们更具体地强调因果链如何将历史地缘政治和政治制度驱动因素与法律，经济，人口，社会文化，规划相关和环境驱动因素联系起来随着时间的流逝，暴露和脆弱性的累积不断增加，并推动了热带气旋Irma和José在2017年的传播和放大。我们发现，历史性的社会政治动态涉及不可持续的发展和解决模式，地方机构的薄弱性，民众对公共当局的不信任感，高度的社会不平等和环境恶化，通过强大的强化机制在圣马丁和圣马丁之间以及在此期间运作，这使圣马丁处于不良的适应轨道上气旋事件。这项研究表明，需要长期的跨学科方法，以便更好地了解路径依赖，并确定在易发生风险的情况下打破路径依赖的手段。在圣马丁，打破路径依赖要求使地方机构能力与国家降低风险政策保持一致，促进社会正义，并使地方社区参与决策。