Discounting the future is essential to inform long-term decisions, but the future of humanity is being put in jeopardy by using the same discount rate for all capital types. Different types of capital assets (built, human, social, natural) have inherently different characteristics and contribute differently to the production of all goods and services. They will behave and depreciate differently and will thus require different discount rates and different approaches to discounting. Here, we estimate the net present value (NPV) of global ES recognizing that ecosystem services are the product of the interaction of the four different types of capital that each have different characteristics. We combine a range of different discount rates for each of the 4 types of capital according to their relative contributions to the production and value of each of 17 global ecosystem services. We estimate that the NPV of global ES ranges from $5.7 to $9.1 × 10¹⁵ (quadrillion 2011$USD). For comparison, the NPV of global GDP estimated in the same way would be about $2.9 to $4.8 × 10¹⁵. This more nuanced approach to discounting can improve information for long-term project appraisal and decision making and help build a more sustainable and desirable future.

折现未来对于长期决策至关重要，但是人类的未来正面临危险，因为所有资本类型都使用相同的折现率。不同类型的资本资产（建筑的，人类的，社会的，自然的）具有内在的不同特征，并且对所有商品和服务的生产产生不同的贡献。它们的行为和折旧会有所不同，因此需要不同的折现率和不同的折现方法。在这里，我们认识到生态系统服务是四种具有不同特征的不同类型资本相互作用的产物，因此我们估算了全球ES的净现值（NPV）。我们根据四种类型的资本对17种全球生态系统服务的生产和价值的相对贡献，组合了一系列不同的折现率。我们估计全球ES的NPV从$ 5.7到$ 9.1×10¹⁵（2011年的四十亿美元）。为了进行比较，以同样的方式估算的全球GDP的NPV约为2.9美元至4.8美元×10 ¹⁵。这种更细微的折价方法可以改善信息，以进行长期的项目评估和决策，并有助于建立更可持续和更理想的未来。