ABSTRACT

Inflation has been rising in Egypt since 2007, and reached record levels in 2017. It was more pronounced in rural Egypt and likely hurt the poor proportionately more, since rising food prices were a major factor behind higher prices over this period. Moreover, rising prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), do not accurately measure changes in the cost of living. When inflation is high, people resort to substitution to hedge themselves against a declining standard of living. Regardless of price changes, habit formation and taste changes can also render the fixed basket of the CPI less representative over time. To accurately monitor changes in the cost of attaining a given utility level, I constructed True Cost of Living Indices (TCLI) and used them to examine the regional and income disparities in cost of living changes, and the extent of the bias in the CPI. Results confirmed that cost of living increases were higher in rural regions, and that there were far larger regional disparities in cost of living increases over time using the TCLI. The bias in the CPI was quite substantial, ranging from underestimating the change in cost of living by 1.86 percentage points, to overestimating it by 1.05 percentage points, depending on region. Finally, I found strong evidence that households at the bottom of the expenditure distribution fared much worse. Depending on region, cost of living increases were 2.8 to 4.1 percentage points higher per year for the poorest urban households than for the richest, during the period under study.

摘要

自2007年以来，埃及的通货膨胀率一直在上升，并在2017年达到创纪录的水平。在埃及农村，通货膨胀率更高，对贫困人口的伤害可能更大，这是因为在这段时期内粮价上涨是物价上涨的主要原因。此外，以消费者物价指数（CPI）衡量的物价上涨并未准确衡量生活成本的变化。当通货膨胀率很高时，人们会采取替代措施来对冲生活水平下降的风险。无论价格如何变化，习惯的形成和口味的变化也会使固定的CPI篮子随着时间的推移变得缺乏代表性。为了准确监控达到特定公用事业水平所需成本的变化，我构建了真实生活成本指数（TCLI），并使用它们来研究生活成本变化中的地区差异和收入差异，以及CPI偏差的程度。结果证实，农村地区的生活成本增加较高，并且随着时间的推移，使用TCLI造成的生活成本区域差异更大。CPI的偏差相当大，从低估生活成本的变化1.86个百分点到高估其1.05个百分点（取决于地区）。最后，我发现有力的证据表明，支出分配最底层的家庭情况要差得多。在研究期间，最贫困的城市家庭的生活成本每年增长2.8至4.1个百分点，具体取决于各个地区。并且随着时间的推移，使用TCLI的生活费用在区域内的差距大大增加。CPI的偏差相当大，从低估生活成本的变化1.86个百分点到高估其1.05个百分点（取决于地区）。最后，我发现有力的证据表明，支出分配最底层的家庭情况要差得多。在研究期间，最贫困的城市家庭的生活成本每年增长2.8至4.1个百分点，具体取决于各个地区。而且随着时间的推移，使用TCLI的生活费用在区域内的差距大大增加。CPI的偏差相当大，从低估生活成本的变化1.86个百分点到高估其1.05个百分点（取决于地区）。最后，我发现有力的证据表明，支出分配最底层的家庭情况要差得多。在研究期间，最贫困的城市家庭的生活成本每年增长2.8至4.1个百分点，具体取决于各个地区。最后，我发现有力的证据表明，支出分配最底层的家庭情况要差得多。在研究期间，最贫困的城市家庭的生活成本每年增长2.8至4.1个百分点，具体取决于各个地区。最后，我发现有力的证据表明，支出分配最底层的家庭情况要差得多。在研究期间，最贫困的城市家庭的生活成本每年增长2.8至4.1个百分点，具体取决于各个地区。