Abstract Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) became the most popular composite indicator within the EU with the purpose of monitoring and/or forecasting business cycles in one country or for a region as a whole. Since it is calculated regularly, on a monthly base, and is based on five distinct confidence indicators, the main concern is whether the ESI can be explained and/or can explain the current, past or future values of relevant macroeconomic variables. This implies its relevance in predicting both short- and long-term economic outcomes of, for example, variation in income, unemployment fluctuations, consumption change, inflation modifications, sectoral alterations and etc. The question that arises often in academic, as well as within the EU decision-making circles is whether the ESI be used as an explanatory variable with valuable information for modelling the national output developments. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to reveal the true strength and significance in the ESI-GDP nexus for the EU. Empirical research is based on panel cointegration analysis that utilizes data on the ESI and GDP over the period 2000-2018 for the EU28 countries. The causal relationship between the variables appears to be consistent in the short- and long-run across the panel, suggesting that ESI movements do explain movements in national output, hence can help both private and public sector decision-makers to evaluate their goals and plan their actions.

中文翻译：

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经济情绪指标与国内生产总值之间的联系；面板协整分析

摘要经济情绪指标（ESI）成为欧盟内最受欢迎的综合指标，其目的是监视和/或预测一个国家或整个地区的商业周期。由于它是按月定期计算的，并且基于五个不同的置信度指标，因此主要关注的是是否可以解释和/或可以解释相关宏观经济变量的当前，过去或将来的值。这暗示着它在预测短期和长期经济结果方面的相关性，例如，收入变化，失业波动，消费变化，通货膨胀调整，行业变化等。以及是否在欧盟决策圈内，都将ESI用作解释变量，并为建立国家产出发展模型提供有价值的信息。因此，本文的目的是揭示欧盟在ESI-GDP关系中的真正实力和意义。实证研究基于面板协整分析，该分析利用了欧盟28国2000-2018年期间的ESI和GDP数据。变量之间的因果关系在整个小组的短期和长期中似乎是一致的，这表明ESI变动确实可以解释国家产出的变动，因此可以帮助私营和公共部门决策者评估其目标和计划他们的行动。本文的目的是揭示欧盟在ESI-GDP关系中的真正实力和意义。实证研究基于面板协整分析，该分析利用了欧盟28国2000-2018年期间的ESI和GDP数据。变量之间的因果关系在整个小组的短期和长期中似乎是一致的，这表明ESI的变动确实可以解释国家产出的变动，因此可以帮助私营和公共部门的决策者评估其目标和计划他们的行动。本文的目的是揭示欧盟在ESI-GDP关系中的真正实力和意义。实证研究基于面板协整分析，该分析利用了欧盟28国2000-2018年期间的ESI和GDP数据。变量之间的因果关系在整个小组的短期和长期中似乎是一致的，这表明ESI的变动确实可以解释国家产出的变动，因此可以帮助私营和公共部门的决策者评估其目标和计划他们的行动。