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Financial Liberalization and Current Account Developments in New EU Member States
Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2020-05-01 , DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0009
Zdenka Obuljen Zoričić 1 , Boris Cota 2 , Nataša Erjavec 2
Affiliation  

Abstract Due to negotiations on accession to the EU, the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe went through the financial opening. In the pre-crisis period followed by high liquidity in global markets, most of the EU new member states experienced rapid credit growth, which conditioned the appreciation of the exchange rate. External imbalances and vulnerabilities built up. Countries experienced deterioration in their current accounts. This paper investigates the link between financial openness, real effective exchange rate, financial crisis and current account balance within the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for 11 new European Union members during the period from 1999 to 2016. The results obtained by the use of pooled mean group estimator (PMG) show that in the long run, financial openness has a significant negative impact on the current account balance. In the short run, crisis significantly influences the current account balance having a positive sign.

中文翻译:

新欧盟成员国的金融自由化和经常账户发展

摘要由于有关加入欧盟的谈判,来自中欧和东欧的新欧盟成员国经历了金融开放。在危机前,全球市场具有高流动性,大多数欧盟新成员国都经历了信贷快速增长,这制约了汇率升值。外部失衡和漏洞累积。各国的经常账户恶化。本文研究了1999年至2016年期间欧盟11个新成员国在面板自动回归分布式滞后(ARDL)框架内的金融开放度,实际有效汇率,金融危机和经常账户余额之间的联系。合并均值组估计器(PMG)的使用表明,从长远来看,财务开放度对经常账户余额具有重大的负面影响。在短期内,危机会显着影响经常账户余额并呈正数。
更新日期:2020-05-01
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