This article presents the results of the first stage of the foresight research ­project initiated by the Faculty of Journalism at Lomonosov Moscow State University. The investigation was based on 49 in-depth semi-structured interviews with media managers and experts and has revealed that the Russian media ­system in the next ten years is unlikely to fundamentally change. According to the ­findings of the research the basic business model in Russia in the next ten years will remain the advertising-driven model. At the same time the level of ­customization of media content will rapidly increase. The experts believe that development of solutions for non-linear consumption of TV content, spread of mobile applications, hybridization of different types of content will be amongst the most powerful trends. The majority of interviewed experts confirmed that two factors are likely to sustain the significant level of uncertainty in the media system of Russia; firstly, new practices of media consumption, and secondly the probability that the business model may shift.

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十年中的俄罗斯媒体行业：行业预测

本文介绍了莫斯科罗蒙诺索夫国立大学新闻学院发起的前瞻性研究项目第一阶段的结果。该调查基于对媒体经理和专家进行的49次深度半结构式访谈，结果表明，未来十年俄罗斯的媒体系统不太可能发生根本变化。根据研究的结果，未来十年俄罗斯的基本商业模式将仍然是广告驱动的模式。同时，媒体内容的定制水平将迅速提高。专家认为，针对电视内容的非线性消费，移动应用程序的普及以及不同类型内容的混合的解决方案的开发将是最强大的趋势之一。大多数受访专家确认，有两个因素可能会在俄罗斯的媒体系统中维持很大程度的不确定性。首先，媒体消费的新做法，其次，商业模式可能发生转变的可能性。