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A Comparative Analysis of One-Sided Violence and Civil War Peace Agreement Implementation
Stability: International Journal of Security and Development Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.5334/sta.774
Madhav Joshi

Does one-sided violence create a negative cascading effect on the success of peace agreement implementation? If violence influences peace accord implementation negatively, how can such violence be contained to safeguard the implementation process? While post-conflict one-sided violence can be viewed as residual, the use of such violence can significantly influence peacebuilding outcomes. Implementing the agreement is a contentious process as both sides expect to maximize their benefits and minimize their losses from intended reforms negotiated in the agreement. Implementation success is achieved by minimizing the difference in policy reforms through mutual trust, reciprocity, and sequential policy moves. In such a contentious implementation setting, the use of one-sided violence by any actor undermines trust and reciprocity between signatories and subsequently forestalls implementation success. Empirical analyses of a global sample of comprehensive peace agreements since 1989 show a significant and negative relationship between the use of one-sided violence and the peace agreement implementation rate. Rebel one-sided violence has a larger negative effect on implementation compared to state and other non-state one-sided violence.

中文翻译:

单方面暴力与内战和平协议执行的比较分析

片面暴力是否会对和平协议的成功实施产生负面连锁效应?如果暴力对和平协议的实施产生负面影响,如何遏制这种暴力以保障实施进程?虽然冲突后的片面暴力可以被视为残余,但使用此类暴力可以显着影响建设和平的结果。执行该协议是一个有争议的过程,因为双方都希望从协议中谈判的预期改革中获得最大利益并最大程度地减少他们的损失。通过互信、互惠和循序渐进的政策举措,最大限度地减少政策改革的差异,从而实现实施成功。在这样一个有争议的实施环境中,任何行为者使用片面的暴力都会破坏签署方之间的信任和互惠,进而阻碍实施的成功。对 1989 年以来全面和平协定全球样本的实证分析表明,使用片面暴力与和平协定执行率之间存在显着的负相关关系。与国家和其他非国家的片面暴力相比,反叛的片面暴力对实施的负面影响更大。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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