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Impact of the novel coronavirus on stock market returns: evidence from GCC countries
Quantitative Finance and Economics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2020029
Raéf Bahrini , , Assaf Filfilan

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is not only an unprecedented human and health crisis, but it is expected to become one of the most economically costly pandemics in recent history. Latest financial reports indicate that the COVID-19 outbreak is severely disrupting the global economy and financial markets. Many equity markets around the world have endured heavy declines since the pandemic’s outbreak. To provide an understanding of the effects of the novel coronavirus pandemic on stock markets, we investigate in this paper the impact of the COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths on the daily returns of the major stock market indices in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period from April 1, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Using a panel data regression analysis, we find that stock markets in the GCC countries responded negatively and with a great degree to new and total COVID-19 confirmed deaths, while response to the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases is not significant. Therefore, during the COVID-19 outbreak daily returns of the major stock market indices in the GCC countries declined as the number of confirmed deaths increased. Further analysis suggests that GCC stock markets are impacted positively by the crude oil price (WTI) and negatively by the variation of the implied volatility in the global oil market and the global stock markets.

中文翻译:

新型冠状病毒对股票市场回报的影响:来自海湾合作委员会国家的证据

新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)不仅是前所未有的人类和健康危机,而且有望成为近代史上经济上代价最高的大流行病之一。最新的财务报告表明,COVID-19疫情正在严重破坏全球经济和金融市场。自大流行爆发以来,全球许多股市都经历了严重下跌。为了了解新的冠状病毒大流行对股票市场的影响,我们在本文中调查了COVID-19确诊病例和死亡对海湾合作委员会(GCC)主要股票指数的日收益的影响2020年4月1日至2020年6月26日期间的国家/地区。使用面板数据回归分析,我们发现,海湾合作委员会国家的股票市场对新的和总的COVID-19确诊死亡人数做出了消极反应,而对COVID-19确诊病例的反应并不明显。因此,在COVID-19爆发期间,随着已确认死亡人数的增加,海湾合作委员会国家主要股市指数的每日回报下降。进一步的分析表明,海湾合作委员会股票市场受到原油价格(WTI)的正面影响,而受到全球石油市场和全球股票市场隐含波动率变化的负面影响。在COVID-19爆发期间,海湾合作委员会国家主要股票指数的每日回报随着确认死亡人数的增加而下降。进一步的分析表明,海湾合作委员会股票市场受到原油价格(WTI)的正面影响,而受到全球石油市场和全球股票市场隐含波动率变化的负面影响。在COVID-19爆发期间,海湾合作委员会国家主要股票指数的每日回报随着确认死亡人数的增加而下降。进一步的分析表明,海湾合作委员会股票市场受到原油价格(WTI)的正面影响,而受到全球石油市场和全球股票市场隐含波动率变化的负面影响。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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