We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic modeling and computer simulations can solve real-world problems for which analytical solutions may be difficult to find.

中文翻译：

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通过模拟选举学院来预测下一任美国总统

我们在模拟选举学院分布的基础上，开发了一个用于预测美国总统大选结果的模拟模型。模拟模型包括两个部分：（a）根据州民意测验估算给定候选人赢得每个州和区议会的概率，以及（b）估算给定候选人将赢得至少270选举人票的概率，因此赢得白宫。所有模拟均使用高级开放源代码编程语言R进行编码。本文的目标之一是通过说明概率建模和计算机模拟如何解决现实世界中需要解决的问题，从而促进任何STEM领域的计算思维。解决方案可能很难找到。