This paper presents the Risk Game, a general methodology to elicit experts’ knowledge and know-how, in their ability to deal with information provided by different types of sources (sensors or humans) of variable quality, to take into account the information quality and to reason about concurrent events. It is a contrived technique capturing data expressing human reasoning features during a specific task of situation assessment. The information is abstracted by cards and its quality, which varies along the three dimensions of uncertainty, imprecision and falseness, is randomly selected by dice roll. The game has been played by experts of maritime surveillance, mostly marine officers from several nations. The Risk Game is domain-independent and can be designed for any specific application involving reasoning with multi-sources. The preliminary results obtained are promising and allow validating the efficiency of the elicitation method in capturing the link between information quality and human belief assessment. Besides the positive feedback collected from the players and their perceived effectiveness of the method, the data effectively capture the impact some specific information quality dimensions on belief assessment. We highlight, for instance, that the relevance of information perceived by the players may differ from the effective information relevance, that a high ratio of false information increases the uncertainty of the player before decision and may lead to wrong decisions, or that the context has a high impact on the decision made. Future extensions of the Risk Game are finally sketched.

中文翻译：

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风险博弈：捕获信息质量对人类信念评估和决策的影响

本文介绍了风险博弈，它是一种通用的方法，可以激发专家的知识和诀窍，使他们能够处理由质量不同的不同类型的源（传感器或人类）提供的信息的能力，并考虑了信息质量和解释并发事件。它是一种人为设计的技术，可在特定情况评估任务中捕获表达人类推理特征的数据。信息是通过纸牌提取的，其质量随不确定性，不精确性和虚假性三个维度而变化，并通过骰子辊随机选择。这场比赛是由海上监视专家，主要是来自几个国家的海上军官进行的。风险游戏与领域无关，可以针对涉及多源推理的任何特定应用程序进行设计。获得的初步结果令人鼓舞，并可以验证启发方法在捕获信息质量和人类信念评估之间的联系方面的效率。除了从参与者那里收集到的积极反馈及其对方法的感知效果之外，数据还有效地捕获了某些特定信息质量维度对信念评估的影响。例如，我们强调指出，参与者感知到的信息的相关性可能与有效信息相关性不同，虚假信息的比例较高会增加参与者在做出决定之前的不确定性，并可能导致错误的决定，或者上下文具有对做出的决定有很大的影响。最终勾勒出了风险游戏的未来扩展。