In 2016, the government of Morocco adopted a parametric reform intended to deal with the critical financial situation of the CMR civilian pension regime. We examine the robustness of this reform using the Cohort-Component population projection model to the fund's population during the period 2014-2064. Then we lead a projection of the scheme financial situation. Moreover, we project the status quo situation and an alternative scenario where we propose to increase the retirement age solely, and then compare the results with those of the 2016 parametric reform. Findings/Originality : For the three scenarios, a parametric reform will have a limited effect on the financial situation, in both the long and the short-term. In long run, it is not sufficient to solve the problem of massive increase of pension scheme deficits while in short run it is not sufficient to eliminate the existing structural problems neither to avoid the future financial deficit. Furthermore, our alternative scenario seems to have some more advantages, comparing with the other scenarios.

中文翻译：

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摩洛哥公共养老金制度的参数化改革分析

2016 年，摩洛哥政府通过了一项参数化改革，旨在应对 CMR 平民养老金制度的严峻财务状况。我们使用 Cohort-Component 人口预测模型对 2014 年至 2064 年期间基金的人口进行了检查，以检验这项改革的稳健性。然后我们对计划的财务状况进行预测。此外，我们预测了现状和我们建议单独提高退休年龄的替代方案，然后将结果与 2016 年参数化改革的结果进行比较。结果/独创性：对于这三种情况，参数化改革对财务状况的长期和短期影响有限。从长远来看，解决养老金计划赤字大量增加的问题是不够的，短期内还不足以消除现有的结构性问题，也不能避免未来的财政赤字。此外，与其他场景相比，我们的替代场景似乎具有更多优势。