ABSTRACT This study updates and expands upon the existing work on the accuracy of the IPF’s Consensus Forecasts. The paper evaluates the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance. It also assesses the accuracy of implied yield forecasts and concludes that failure in yield forecasting is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. A high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings was found. Evidence of a pessimism bias was identified. Yield forecasts are consistently found to perform worst using a range of forecast performance metrics.

中文翻译：

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重新共识房地产预测的准确性

摘要本研究对IPF共识预测准确性的现有工作进行了更新和扩展。本文评估了共识预测能够预测相对绩效的程度。它还评估了隐含收益率预测的准确性，并得出结论，收益率预测失败是资本增长和总收益预测失败的主要原因。在实际和预测的行业排名之间达成了高度一致。确定了悲观偏见的证据。使用一系列预测绩效指标，始终可以得出收益预测最差。