ABSTRACT

This paper aims to examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and tourism activities in the Group of Eight countries using wavelet transform context structures. This innovative technique allows the decomposition of time-series at different time frequencies. In this work, we used continuous wavelets, wavelet coherency and wavelet phase-difference based on Granger causality analysis to investigate the relationship between EPU and tourism. Results indicate that the relationship is generally negative but changes over time, displaying low to high frequency cycles. Moreover, the timing and frequency change when EPU co-moves with tourism. Accordingly, it can be recommended that the government increase and promote tourism demand and further provide and nurture the expansion of the tourism supply.

摘要

本文旨在使用小波变换上下文结构研究八国集团国家经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 与旅游活动之间的关系。这种创新技术允许分解不同时间频率的时间序列。在这项工作中，我们使用基于格兰杰因果分析的连续小波、小波相干和小波相位差来研究 EPU 与旅游之间的关系。结果表明这种关系通常是负面的，但随着时间的推移而变化，显示出低到高的频率周期。此外，EPU 与旅游联动时的时间和频率会发生变化。据此，建议政府增加和促进旅游需求，进一步提供和培育扩大旅游供给。