In the 1920s, Irving Fisher described how variations in the price level, presumably caused by changes in the money stock, were associated with cyclical movements in output and employment. At the same time, Holbrook Working designed a rule for achieving price stability through control of the money supply. This paper develops a structural vector autoregression that allows these “classical” channels of monetary transmission to operate alongside the modern New Keynesian interest rate channel. Even with Bayesian priors favoring the New Keynesian view, the U.S. data produce posterior distributions for the model's parameters consistent with the ideas of Fisher and Working.

中文翻译：

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商业周期的经典观点

在1920年代，欧文·费舍尔（Irving Fisher）描述了大概由货币存量变化引起的价格水平变化如何与产出和就业的周期性运动相关联。同时，Holbrook Working设计了一个规则，可以通过控制货币供应来实现价格稳定。本文开发了一种结构矢量自回归，可以使这些“经典”的货币传导渠道与现代的新凯恩斯主义利率渠道一起运作。即使贝叶斯先验论证了新凯恩斯主义的观点，美国数据也为模型参数产生了后验分布，与费舍尔和沃金的观点一致。