This paper analyses the factors behind wildfire propagation in a Mediterranean European country, Portugal, using a set of variables related to vegetation and climatic, topography and human aspects. Spatial cluster analysis was used to find homogeneous regions, and two-part regression models were used to model the contribution of the different elements driving extensive fire propagation. Our findings confirm the presence of spatial variability in the contribution exerted by most structural factors driving large wildfire spread. Additionally, the results of this study show that vegetation types, in particular the presence of shrubs, and a lack of human activities, such as agriculture, represent the main factors facilitating fire spread in this region, corroborating information from previous work. This research provides relevant input for implementation in different fields, from large fire awareness and prevention to the development of wildfire policies, as well as addressing methodological concerns in fire danger and fire risk analyses.

本文使用一组与植被和气候，地形和人为因素相关的变量，分析了葡萄牙地中海欧洲国家野火蔓延的因素。使用空间聚类分析来找到同质区域，并使用两部分回归模型来模拟驱动广泛火灾蔓延的不同元素的贡献。我们的研究结果证实，大多数野火蔓延的大多数结构性因素所发挥的作用存在空间变异性。此外，这项研究的结果表明，植被类型，尤其是灌木的存在以及人类活动的缺乏，例如农业，是促成该地区火势蔓延的主要因素，从而证实了先前工作的信息。