Ocean dynamic sea level (DSL) change is a key driver of relative sea level (RSL) change. Projections of DSL change are generally obtained from simulations using atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Here, we develop a two‐layer climate emulator to interpolate between emission scenarios simulated with GCMs and extend projections beyond the time horizon of available simulations. This emulator captures the evolution of DSL changes in corresponding GCMs, especially over middle and low latitudes. Compared with an emulator using univariate pattern scaling, the two‐layer emulator more accurately reflects GCM behavior and captures non‐linearities and non‐stationarity in the relationship between DSL and global‐mean warming, with a reduction in global‐averaged error during 2271–2290 of 36%, 24%, and 34% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Using the emulator, we develop a probabilistic ensemble of DSL projections through 2300 for four scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0. The magnitude and uncertainty of projected DSL changes decrease from the high‐to the low‐emission scenarios, indicating a reduced DSL rise hazard in low‐ and moderate‐emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) compared to the high‐emission scenarios (SSP3‐7.0 and RCP8.5).

中文翻译：

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通过两层模式缩放模拟海洋动态海平面

海洋动态海平面 (DSL) 变化是相对海平面 (RSL) 变化的关键驱动因素。DSL 变化的预测通常是通过使用大气-海洋环流模型 (GCM) 进行的模拟获得的。在这里，我们开发了一个两层气候模拟器，用于在 GCM 模拟的排放情景之间进行插值，并将预测扩展到可用模拟的时间范围之外。该模拟器捕捉了相应 GCM 中 DSL 变化的演变，尤其是在中低纬度地区。与使用单变量模式缩放的仿真器相比，两层仿真器更准确地反映 GCM 行为并捕捉 DSL 与全球平均变暖之间关系的非线性和非平稳性，并减少了 2271- 期间的全球平均误差RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 中 36%、24% 和 34% 的 2290，分别。使用模拟器，我们开发了 DSL 预测到 2300 的概率集合，用于四种场景：代表性集中路径 (RCP) 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5 和共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 3-7.0。预计 DSL 变化的幅度和不确定性从高排放情景向低排放情景降低，表明与高排放情景相比，低排放和中等排放情景（RCP2.6 和 RCP4.5）中 DSL 上升的风险降低（SSP3-7.0 和 RCP8.5）。